Julia, good afternoon! I plan to visit Cancun (Mexico), the trip will take place from July 22 to August 5 this year. What is the probability of hurricanes and heavy rains during this period? I understand that nobody can predict the weather, but you write on your page that I read several times that heavy rains begin at the end of August! At the same time on the site "Subtlety of Tourism" there is a weather forecast for 10 days in Cancun, and she puzzled me ... Every day the rain, heavy rains, and even worse - strong wind and hurricanes!
Regarding the weather in this region: August - the beginning of October is considered a period when hurricanes are possible, but that does not mean at all that they will. It is possible that there will be a tropical storm, not a hurricane. This means, for example, one day it will rain and there will be a strong wind, while the air temperature remains unchanged. The next day, the beautiful sunny weather sets again.
What is the rainy season that lasts in the Caribbean by the end of September: it's raining once a day or once every few days, usually in the evenings for about 20 minutes, 25. Then the sun and great weather. Rains are stormy in nature, but they are not long.
The weather as a whole is good. All our tourists who rested in Mexico in the so-called rainy season and hurricanes, were happy. No one met the hurricane, with the rain, someone was luckier, some less.
Unfortunately, as you correctly noted, we are unable to predict the weather, but based on previous experience, I can say , that the probability of good weather is 60-70%. As for the hurricanes, in August they really start their time, but sometimes they happen in June too, so, as they say: "Wolves should not be afraid to go to the forest."
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